With a little under a year left until Argentina’s general election, it is worth taking some time to reflect on the country’s political panorama.
The incumbent government faces two fundamental challenges. First of all, it is confronted by the very real possibility of losing its grip on power next year. Secondly – and as a consequence – it is encumbered by the quintessential predicament of hyper-presidential, dynastic regimes: the problem of succession. With no clear candidate set to replace Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, who is constitutionally restricted from pursuing a third term, a number of candidates are vying to lead the Frente para la Victoria’s (Front for Victory – FPV) ticket.
Daniel Scioli, the governor of Buenos Aires province and former vice-president during Néstor Kirchner’s administration, is the favourite, but various regional governors and top ministers have also made their interest known. Ultimately, the choice of successor will rest with the President and her circle, who will have to make astute choices in a climate of waning popularity.
Amongst the opposition, the principal threat to the current government’s tenure is Sergio Massa. Formerly Cristina’s Chief of Staff, Massa broke away from the government before last year’s mid-term legislative elections, establishing the Frente Renovador (Renewal Front – FR). In the elections, Massa delivered a major blow to the FPV, winning heavily in the crucial province of Buenos Aires. Since then, Massa’s party has strengthened its political base in the run-up to 2015, seducing government defectors and figures from the dissident Peronist movement.
Flanking Massa in the polls is Mauricio Macri, leader of the centre-right Propuesta Republicana (Republican Proposal – PRO), and current Chief of Government for the city of Buenos Aires. Although Macri appears to be a popular presidential candidate, as a relatively new party, PRO lacks the national structure which would allow it to field candidates across the territory and obtain a major legislative bloc.
Another key actor in the electoral jostle is the Frente Amplio UNEN (Broad Front UNEN – FAU). Established in 2013, FAU is a coalition comprised of a diverse group of parties which has resolved to decide upon a presidential candidate through primaries next August. Yet, as fissures emerge between FAU’s heavyweights, questions surround whether the coalition’s big tent approach will endure, and whether they will eventually flout ideological differences to make a pragmatic alliance with the Republican Proposal.
Finally, the Frente de Izquierda y de los Trabajadores (Worker’s Left Front – FIT), whilst far from making a presidential bid, will attempt to build on its unprecedented performance in the mid-term elections.
Given these developments, a number of questions emerge: will the general election mark the twilight of the Kirchner era, or could it deliver a new lease of life? Will Peronism retain its hegemony, albeit through the guise of Massa’s renewal? Could a Macri victory usher in a new era of centre-right politics, or will Argentines be prepared to trust a fragile coalition?
With a plurality of contenders and no clear front-runners, there is little certainty as to what October will bring, aside from the fact that an outright electoral victory is unlikely. The fragmentation of the opposition gestures at a number of potential run-off scenarios, and much will depend on the Kabuki game of electoral manoeuvres and alliances that will dominate the next few months.
By June, all arrangements will be formalised, and the country’s political forces will contend to inveigle undecided voters. Crime, currency control, recession, inflation, the scope of subsidies, welfare, and energy policy will pervade national discussions. Indigenous rights, environmental stewardship, the merits of extractivism, and the precarisation of labour will not.
And when the chatter quietens and the electoral silence takes hold, Argentines will be left to deposit their hopes in the ballot boxes.